Bitcoin might seem to have encountered a hurdle after reaching $52,000, but the recent downturn is expected to be short-lived. Matrixport’s latest report suggests that Bitcoin’s target of reaching $63,000 by March 2024 remains feasible.
Catalysts supporting this projection include the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, expectations of an interest rate cut following the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, and the US presidential election.
Fueling Bitcoin’s March 2024 Goal
Following the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, there has been an increasing demand for these offerings. Over the past week, spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced consistent increases in funds, outpacing all other exchange-traded products (ETPs) among the 3,400 available for trading in the United States.
Recent statistics indicate that these ETFs have observed net positive inflows surpassing $2.2 billion for the second consecutive week, spanning from February 12 to 16.
The majority of the funds flowed into BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which accumulated $1.6 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC followed with the second-highest inflow, drawing $648.5 million last week. During the same period, Ark Invest/21Shares’ ARKB and Bitwise’s BITB garnered $405 million and $232.1 million, respectively.
The report also noted that anticipations of interest rate reductions after the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings could sway preferences towards riskier assets such as Bitcoin. Decreased interest rates typically diminish the attractiveness of investments that generate yields, thereby enhancing the appeal of growth-oriented assets.
Matrixport emphasized that the forthcoming US presidential elections and policy uncertainties might also influence Bitcoin prices. Historically, during such periods, investors have often turned to alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against potential shifts in economic policies.
However, predicting the exact impact of these political events on crypto markets is challenging due to their complexity.
Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump, who is currently leading the race for the Republican Party presidential nomination, has shifted his stance on Bitcoin. Despite previously making negative remarks about the leading crypto asset and labeling it a scam during his presidency, Trump now indicates a willingness to accept Bitcoin while acknowledging its growing demand.
More Demand For Bitcoin
In a statement on CryptoPotato, Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, predicted 2024 to be a favorable year for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver. Continuously elevated inflation rates, exceeding the preferred thresholds of central banks globally, are expected to prolong higher interest rates.
This outlook is poised to moderate prevailing market anticipations for prompt monetary policy relaxation in developed markets (DM), potentially causing disillusionment among investors.
“Looking ahead to 2024, the outlook for equity markets appears more challenging. Factors such as modest earnings growth and various geopolitical risks are expected to exert downward pressure on stock markets. Some research suggests modest earnings growth for the S&P 500, in the range of 2–3% and a target of 4,200 for the index, with a downside bias. This aligns with our view and we believe will result in more demand for commodities and Bitcoin.”
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