ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said on Tuesday that she and her fund are now more confident in their “bull case” for Bitcoin (BTC): $1.5 million by 2030.
The investment manager’s boost of confidence stems from Bitcoin’s positive response to the United States regional banking crisis in March.
The Bear, Base, and Bull Case
Ark published a bear, base, and bull thesis for where Bitcoin would be in 2030 back in January. All price targets were many multiple higher than Bitcoin’s price today, sitting at $258,500, $682,800, and $1.48 million respectively.
Each case put forward different estimates for the total market share of various financial use cases that Bitcoin could gobble up. The bull case rested largely on Bitcoin absorbing $50% of gold’s market cap, while also claiming 6.5% of the institutional asset base and 10% of the M2 money supply in emerging markets.
In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Wood said that ARK’s confidence in the bull case had “increased” in March when regional banks including Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) all collapsed after facing overwhelming withdrawal pressure.
ARKK's Cathie Wood: on #bitcoin "is an insurance policy against two things: the confiscation of wealth, either directly or by inflation, or in the deflation world, what is it a hedge against? It's a hedge against counterparty risk. We won't have an '08-'09 with bitcoin" pic.twitter.com/jk9hR0Lsid
— Pledditor (@Pledditor) July 17, 2023
“As regional banks are going bankrupt and the stocks are imploding across the board, Bitcoin rallied from $19,000 to $30,000,” Wood said. In Wood’s view, this rally signaled a “flight to safety” among investors that “everyone” will eventually want.
Bitcoin As Insurance
For one, Wood said that Bitcoin insures against both direct and indirect confiscation of wealth. Whereas direct confiscation means stealing one’s assets by force, indirect confiscation is inflation – the devaluation of a national currency, particularly one whose supply has been astronomically inflated through money printing.
Bitcoin’s supply is programmatically capped at 21 million units, making inflation of this style impossible. Yet even in a deflationary environment for fiat, Wood said Bitcoin presents a hedge against counterparty risk.
“We won’t have an 08’ / 09’ with Bitcoin,” she said. “Everything is decentralized, and transparent.”
Wood isn’t the only billionaire with a hyper-bullish long-term thesis for Bitcoin. Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, has predicted that Bitcoin’s market cap could soar to $100 million – implying a BTC price of $4.7 million per coin.
Other bulls are confident that Bitcoin will perform strongly over the next 18 months. This year, both Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki and Standard Chartered Bank have called for a $120,000 per coin price by 2025.
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