Crypto assets declined as 2024 came to a close. Bitcoin’s post-election surge to over $100,000 had lost momentum. Entering 2025, the asset touched $97,000 but soon pulled back slightly.
However, the latest CryptoQuant analysis hints that BTC is still in the midst of a bull market. The current phase has been identified as a cooling-off period rather than the end of the cycle.
Momentary Slowdown
After Bitcoin’s price surpassed $108,000, a correction followed, which raised concerns about the possibility of an extended stagnation like the previous six-month retracement. Despite this, key on-chain data suggested a reassuring view of the market’s health.
In its report, CryptoQuant’s Adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which eliminates short-term noise by excluding transactions under an hour and employs a 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), remains above 1 but is trending downward. This suggests diminishing profits for participants but aligns with historical patterns, where SOPR dropping below 1 often triggers reversals in bull markets.
Similarly, the Miner Position Index (MPI) also shows a downward trend, with no indications of mass Bitcoin transfers to exchanges. Such a trend is indicative of the fact that miners, especially large firms, are holding their Bitcoin assets, although periodic sell-offs for operational expenses are expected.
Other metrics, such as total network fees, reflect reduced on-chain activity. This phase is further validated by declining funding rates, which have historically been precursors to Bitcoin rebounds, particularly during periods of negative sentiment.
Hence, the data collectively point to a temporary cooling-off period in the ongoing bull market. While reduced on-chain activity and declining metrics suggest a momentary slowdown, there is no substantial evidence pointing to a cycle peak.
Old Bitcoin Whales Selling Amid Institutional Buying
According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s update, “old whales” are currently the sellers in the Bitcoin market. This is evidenced by high over-the-counter (OTC) volume and significant exchange deposits. However, he dismissed fears of a market crash, adding that these sales are unlikely to cause significant disruptions.
Ju also noted that buying pressure predominantly comes from US institutions, particularly through Coinbase. Despite this institutional interest, he pointed out that the daily premium on Coinbase is at a multi-year low, which means that the momentum has weakened. As such, a recovery in this premium is needed to support Bitcoin’s next leg up.
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