Bitcoin’s brief rebound above $66,000 following U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address has done little to shift the underlying market structure, with fresh analysis from Coinbase Institutional pointing to a critical support zone near $60,000 that, if broken, could trigger accelerated selling.
The combination of options market dynamics and on-chain data suggests the path of least resistance remains lower, with any sustained recovery likely requiring a reclaim of $82,000, a level that currently stands as the first major hurdle to renewed upside momentum.
Options Market Points to Accelerated Downside Risk
Coinbase Institutional’s latest Bitcoin playbook introduced gamma exposure (GEX) as a lens for understanding how options dealers influence price action. According to the firm, when dealers hold positive gamma, their hedging tends to stabilize prices, selling into strength and buying into weakness. Negative gamma has the opposite effect, forcing dealers to buy as prices rise and sell as they fall, amplifying trends.
The current configuration shows a pronounced negative gamma band concentrated in the $60,000 to $70,000 region, with positive gamma pockets forming higher up near $85,000 and $90,000. This structure, per Coinbase, carries a specific implication: downside momentum into the $60,000 area could accelerate rapidly, while any advance toward $90,000 would likely grind and consolidate rather than break out cleanly.
Dense support sits near $60,000 based on historical market structure and volume profiles, while $82,000 represents the first significant resistance band. According to Coinbase’s market watchers, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $82,000 on approach, the lack of stabilizing gamma in that region suggests resistance may hold. By contrast, a break below $60,000 would occur in a negative gamma environment, meaning selling could feed on itself as dealers hedge in the direction of the move.
On-Chain Data Confirms Defensive Regime
Coinbase’s options-derived outlook matches up with deteriorating on-chain fundamentals. Yesterday, analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Realized Cap has declined for a second consecutive month, falling roughly $33 billion from its peak of $1.127 trillion in November 2025 to around $1.094 trillion. Furthermore, the 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change is still negative, signaling ongoing capital outflows.
Separate data from Glassnode showed the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio falling below 1, meaning more BTC is being sold at a loss than at a profit. According to the analytics platform, such regimes have historically persisted for months before liquidity conditions improved.
Meanwhile, sentiment tracker Santiment said on Wednesday that bullish commentary across X, Reddit, and Telegram has reached a four-week high following Trump’s State of the Union speech. However, the firm cautioned that elevated retail optimism and talk of a “bear cycle” ending have, in the past, coincided with stalled rallies.
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